Confirmation Bias

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Bias 奥德修斯与塞壬

我们只对确定性的事物感兴趣，很容易忽视让我们感到不确定、不适的事物。

Confirmation Bias is a subtle but major force. As the psychologist Raymond Nickerson puts it: "If one were to attempt to identify a single problematic aspect of human reasoning that deserves attention above all others, the Confirmation Bias would have to be among the candidates for consideration."

With a good system, the mere necessities of the workflow will force us to act more virtuously without actually having to become more virtuous.

How to tackle the Confirmation Bias?

戒慎恐惧

First, by turning the whole writing process on its head. Secondly, by changing the incentives from finding confirming facts to an indiscriminate gathering of any relevant information regardless of what argument it will support.

即使这个世界上存在着什么终极真理，它恰好落在你我手中的概率也是非常小的。所以我们不妨做这样的假设：我们每个人的观点，其实都是偏见，只是程度不同而已。所以我觉得，确定自己的想法是个偏见，而不是相反，这是更符合事实，也是更可取的态度。这会让我们对自己的观点不那么确信，对别人的观点保持应有的谨慎，从而避免陷入到由观念引发的某种狂热之中。这种狂热很浅薄，也很危险。